For a month now, the world has watched the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The war has dominated news coverage since before the invasion as the question remains to many, why Russia would invade a sovereign country and whether this could expand to an all-out war in Europe for the first time since World War II?
It’s a conflict that likely won’t end any time soon.
“Right now, Russia is still not fighting the war they are prepared for. In other words, they have a massive war-machine but are still only using small parts of it in this war,” said Dr. Craig Albert, director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. “There are several reasons for this: they may not want to expose their hands to great powers; they may want to bring Ukraine back to the fold, so annihilating them, vis-à-vis, Grozny, might not be the best play. As it is, Russia is still poised to take Kyiv within a few months unless Ukraine has alliance boots on the ground, which is not likely since it will raise the specter of WWIII.”
Albert expects Russia to expand upon its war efforts.
“I think we will most likely see the rise in dirty war tactics and techniques, with more mercenaries, more artillery bombardment, and more foreign fighters joining on both sides, especially former NATO special operations forces moving into the Ukraine International Legion, and well-paid Syrians on the side of Russia. With this increase in contract soldiers, we can expect more human rights atrocities and atrocities committed against soldiers as well as a relaxation of Geneva rules for armed conflict amongst combatants,” said Albert.
The battle will also likely increase in the cyber world.
“I expect a steady, prolonged consistent cyber-conflict campaign waged by Russia against Ukraine and its allies, including the U.S. I don’t expect an escalation on this front at least at it applies to NATO forces. Russia is saving its most savvy cyberweapons for a possible larger-scaled conflict against a major power.”
Albert is director of the Master of Arts in Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University. He is a leading expert on war, terrorism, and American politics. This is an important national and international issue. Albert is available to speak with media – simply click on his name to arrange an interview today.